DENVER — A few afternoon thunderstorms, including a potential severe storm, are possible in Denver starting Monday afternoon into the evening hours while the risk for damaging winds, hail and isolated tornadoes is greater across Colorado’s northeastern plains.
Counties in the tornado watch include: Logan, Morgan, Phillips, Sedgwick, Washington, Weld and Yuma.
Along with the threat of tornadoes, the NWS said hail up to tennis ball size and wind gusts up to 70 mph were possible.
As of early afternoon, the National Weather Service (NWS) in Boulder added Denver, Boulder and Longmont to an area of marginal risk of severe weather on Monday. Fort Collins, Estes Park and Granby are under a marginal threat of a severe storm.
The severe thunderstorm threat grows further east across the state.
The far northeastern corner of Colorado is under an enhanced risk of severe weather on Monday bringing the biggest threat of potentially damaging weather and isolated tornadoes.
“The National Weather Service upgraded the severe weather outlook for today and the bullseye encompasses northeast Colorado,” said Denver7 weather forecaster Katie LaSalle.
Conditions are expected to remain mostly clear and dry in Denver and the plains until later during the afternoon hours.
“The clouds build quickly and after 4 p.m. we’ll see a temperature drop which is when we’ll see our best chance for thunderstorms rolling through the metro area and out east,” added LaSalle.
Storms are expected to pop up around Greeley and march toward the northeast on Monday afternoon. While the thunderstorm threat remains in the Denver area, conditions could remain cloudy in the metro as storms begin firing on the plains.
NWS Boulder
The NWS said between 4 p.m. and midnight would be the “peak risk period” for strong storms to develop and while a few tornadoes are possible on the northeast plains, significant, large hail would be the greatest threat with severe storms that develop.
‘Large hail greater than 2” in diameter and damaging wind gusts up to 70 mph are possible,’ wrote the NWS.
Widespread flooding is not expected on Monday.
“We will still see the chance for wet weather into the overnight hours and could see a bit of a thunder and lightning show early Tuesday morning and some fresh snow at elevations mainly above 10,000 feet into Colorado’s northern and central mountains,” said LaSalle.
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Denver’s forecast on Tuesday shows a rainy and cooler day in store with a high of only 58 degrees expected.
While rain and slightly cooler conditions are expected in Denver on Tuesday, the severe weather threat will diminish as the storm system moves east.
Temperatures quickly rebound on Wednesday with a high of 74 degrees expected in Denver then warming to 80 degrees on Thursday, which is forecast to be the warmest day of the week.
Denver’s weather brings a few late day thunderstorms on Friday with highs in the low 70s before dry and warm weather settles in for the weekend.
Threats to areas in an Enhanced Risk typically include: The potential for tornadoes. Frequent lightning. Damaging winds in excess of 58 mph, and possibly in excess of 70 mph. Hail with a diameter in excess of 1 inch, with the increased potential for 2-inch or larger hailstones.
Does a hailstorm mean there could also be a tornado? Not always, but possibly. Since large hail often appears near the area within a thunderstorm where tornadoes are most likely to form, you should assume a tornado could be nearby and seek appropriate shelter.
According to Storm Chasing USA, the eastern portion of Colorado is included in the infamous Tornado Alley, including Weld County. This is certainly no surprise considering the high concentration of tornadic activity that can be witnessed in the spring and summer months here in Northern Colorado.
“As those storms come over the mountains, they will squeeze out some moisture but because it is so high in the atmosphere, they are so cold so as they drop down — if they are going to have any moisture coming out, everything is frozen up there because it is so cold,” Michels said.
Those levels from 1 to 5 respectively are MARGINAL, SLIGHT, ENHANCED, MODERATE, and HIGH. An area under a MARGINAL risk for severe weather will feature a threat of isolated severe weather.
Minimum Action: Preparations should be made for a very low likelihood (or a 2 to 4% probability) of tornadoes; isolated tornadoes of F0 to F1 intensity possible.
This calm happens when warm, moist air that fuels the storm is pulled in, creating a low-pressure area and stabilizing the surrounding air with warm, dry air that descends from the storm.
“Gorilla hail” is a term coined by Reed Timmer, a storm chaser who calls himself an extreme meteorologist, according to AccuWeather senior meteorologist Alex Sosnowski. Some have started using the description for large hail, 2 inches in diameter or bigger.
“And therefore, Weld County, Colorado, is the tornado capital of the United States.” Nelson recalls a tornado that hit the town of Windsor on the Weld County/Larimer County line 15 years ago, on May 22, 2008. It killed one person, injured nearly 80 and damaged more than 800 homes.
Tornadoes typically form during the afternoon to early evening hours across Colorado. The tornado threat in Colorado increases rapidly in May and continues through August.
Traditionally, Tornado Alley is considered as running roughly north from Texas through Oklahoma, Kansas, and Nebraska to South Dakota, and often including neighboring states to the east and west.
While June showcases the peak of hail activity across much of Colorado, parts of southeastern regions, including Pueblo, experience a shift in hail dynamics. In these areas, August is the most dangerous month for hail, showing that hail patterns can vary locally within the state.
This region, particularly around the Colorado Front Range, consistently experiences a high number of hail storms annually. According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), these areas have the highest frequency of large hail in North America.
As the climate has warmed, there's been an increase in the ingredients that make up hail storms: more instability in the atmosphere and stronger updrafts. The altitude in the atmosphere where water freezes has also been rising because of the warmer weather.
The Enhanced Fujita Scale or EF Scale, which became operational on February 1, 2007, is used to assign a tornado a 'rating' based on estimated wind speeds and related damage.
The Great Plains are conducive to the type of thunderstorms (supercells) that spawn tornadoes. It is in this region that cool, dry air in the upper levels of the atmosphere caps warm, humid surface air.
The scale ranks tornadoes from F0 to F5, with F0 being the least intense and F5 being the most intense. F5 tornadoes were estimated to have had maximum winds between 261 mph (420 km/h) and 318 mph (512 km/h). F5 damage in Bridge Creek, Oklahoma, from the May 3, 1999, tornado.
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