We’re back to the normal 15-game slate on Tuesday with games starting at 6:35 PM in Baltimore and ending with a 10:10 PM first pitch in Los Angeles. After an easy 1-0 day with my best bets yesterday, I’m back with 3 picks for today, and 2 of them are at plus odds!
Before we get into the games, let me introduce myself. For those that don’t know me, my name is Keith, and I finished up +62.6 units in the regular season last year with my Pickswise picks. And now, let’s get into my MLB best bets for Tuesday, andbe sure to also visit our MLB predictions for all of today’s games.
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Washington Nationals First 5 innings run line +0.5 (-108) vs Miami Marlins
Available at FanDuel Sportsbook at time of publishing
In their last 6 games against a left-handed starter, the Nationals are 5-1 on the first 5 innings run line. Their only loss in that span came against Drew Smyly, who is having a breakout season at the age of 33. But back to the Nats, they have been one of the best teams against left-handed pitching this year. Washington has a .304 average against southpaws, which ranks 3rd in baseball, as well as ranking 2nd in on-base percentage, 6th in OPS and 6th in wRC+. Their most recent game against a lefty was last night against David Peterson, and the Nationals rocked him for 6 runs and 9 hits in 5 innings en route to a 6-1 win in the first half of the game. On Tuesday, they will face Jesus Luzardo, an above-average lefty with a great slider. Luzardo is one of the better lefties that the Nationals have faced recently, but the sluggish Marlins offense gives this bet value. Miami is 1-4-1 in the first 5 innings in Luzardo’s last 6 starts, and that’s primarily because they average the fewest runs in the first half of the game of any team.
I’m starting to really like Josiah Gray. He was the main piece in the Max Scherzer and Trea Turner blockbuster trade with the Dodgers many years ago, and he’s finally found his identity this season. Gray had a poor season debut against the Braves, but in his 7 starts since, Gray is allowing just a .234 batting average, a .214 xBA and just a 32% hard-hit rate. He’s been a completely different pitcher this season with just a 2.96 ERA, and on the road, it drops to 2.43. But more importantly for this bet, he’s also been excellent in the first few innings. Opponents have just a .227 batting average against him in the first 5 innings, and in his last 7 starts, Gray has allowed just 8 total runs in the first half of the game. Getting Washington to be winning or tied at the end of the 5th inning at near-even odds is worth the play.
Check out today’s YRFI/NRFI best bets!
Tampa Bay Rays ML (+138) over New York Mets
Available at FanDuel Sportsbook at time of publishing
Getting the Rays at plus odds is definitely worth a look, and tonight, it’s worth a long and in-depth look. They just finished up a 4-game set with the Yankees across town and split the series even though they scored 29 runs. Their issue was a taxed bullpen that needed time off but had to provide 3 or more innings in 3 of the 4 games. Fortunately for Tampa Bay, they had Monday off, which was crucial for their arm barn. That means every arm will be available tonight, and it looks like Jalen Beeks will be the opener and he will be followed by Yonny Chirinos. I expect the pair of relievers to face the lineup once and then hand the baton off to the next guy, and there’s a chance that the last Rays reliever used is their lock-down closer, Pete Fairbanks, who was just activated off the injured list.
Justin Verlander will make his 1st start in his new home on Tuesday night in front of a packed crowd at Citi Field. The reigning AL Cy Young winner has made only 2 starts this season due to starting the season on the injured list, but he’s given up just 3 runs and 7 hits in 12 innings. Those numbers are impressive, but they were against the Tigers and Reds, who rank 22nd and 29th in OPS this season. The Rays, on the other hand, rank 1st in on-base percentage, slugging percentage, OPS, ISO and wRC+ against right-handed pitching. Tampa Bay also mashes Verlander’s primary 2 pitches, his fastball and slider, since they rank 1st in wFB and 3rd in wSL. And don’t forget about the Mets offense that was just shut down by Patrick Corbin yesterday, which just about sums things up in Queens. With a rested bullpen and a red-hot offense, the Rays are an attractive bet at plus odds.
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Seattle Mariners -1.5 (+100) over Boston Red Sox
Available at DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing
In every sense of the word, the Mariners dominated the Red Sox last night. The slaughtering finally finished with a score of 10-1 as George Kirby shut down the Sox lineup from the start. Seattle was able to get to Tanner Houck for 4 runs and 5 hits in 5 innings before the Boston bullpen blew the game open. That’s been a common occurrence in the last week or so for the Red Sox, as their bullpen has been one of the most unreliable arm barns in the game. Kenley Jansen has 2 blown saves in a row, John Schreiber left last night’s game with an injury, Ryan Brasier was just DFA’d and Brennan Bernardino was just sent down to Triple-A. In summary, their pen is a mess. And unfortunately for them, they will likely be asked to provide several innings of relief tonight since Nick Pivetta has pitched into the 6th inning in only 2 of his 7 starts.
The Mariners aren’t the most powerful team in the league, but they can certainly take advantage of Pivetta’s 15.5% barrel rate. That mark puts him into the 3rd percentile for barrel rate, and he also ranks in the bottom 10% of pitchers in hard-hit rate, average exit velocity, xSLG and xERA. The Canadian has a tough time pitching in the friendly confines of Fenway Park since he has a 6.30 ERA and has given up 6 homers in just 20 innings this season. Unfortunately for Pivetta, the weather will not be on his side as 13 MPH winds will be blowing out towards right-center field which only benefits the hitters even more. And by the way, the Mariners have Luis Castillo on the mound – one of the best pitchers in the game. Boston has scored 5 runs in their last 3 games, and their offense should continue to stay cold against Castillo on Tuesday night.
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