Will fixed-income funds recover?
Looking ahead: Our positive view on the value of fixed income still holds. We expect interest rates to ultimately settle above the unusually low levels experienced after the 2008 global financial crisis. Investors can capture durable, resilient yields, and if rates decline, additional price appreciation.
Starting yields, potential rate cuts and a return to contrasting performance for stocks and bonds could mean an attractive environment for fixed income in 2024.
As for fixed income, we expect a strong bounce-back year to play out over the course of 2024. When bond yields are high, the income earned is often enough to offset most price fluctuations. In fact, for the 10-year Treasury to deliver a negative return in 2024, the yield would have to rise to 5.3 percent.
In current market circ*mstances, with higher bond yields, fixed income investments have become an attractive asset class again from a risk-return perspective. Apart from the attractive yield, bonds also offer resilience for adverse market developments in risk assets like equities.
Looking at the asset class's historical performance leads us to believe that high yield is poised to produce a positive return in 2024, albeit not as robust as that experienced in 2023. We believe that the economy is not rolling over and that a recession is likely to be at least six months away.
Fixed income valuations, and a different inflation profile to the past few years, should make 2024 a good year for bonds. However, as with this year, it will not be all plain sailing. That's why a dynamic approach and strong country and company selection will be needed to deliver on the promise.
Unless you are set on holding your bonds until maturity despite the upcoming availability of more lucrative options, a looming interest rate hike should be a clear sell signal.
If an investor is looking for reliable income, now can be a good time to consider investment-grade bonds. If an investor is looking to diversify their portfolio, they should consider a medium-term investment-grade bond fund which could benefit if and when the Fed pivots from raising interest rates.
Waiting for the Fed to cut rates before considering longer term bonds isn't our preferred approach. The bond market is forward-looking and long-term Treasury yields typically decline once investors believe that rate cuts are coming.
The table on the right shows that bond prices often recover within 8 to 12 months. Unnerved investors that are selling their bond funds risk missing out when bond returns recover. It is important to acknowledge that some of those strong recoveries were helped by bond yields that were higher than they are today.
What is the disadvantage of a fixed income investment?
Although it seems that fixed income investments are risk-free and 100% safe, nothing is further from the truth. Fixed income investments run credit risk, market risk, movement penalties, hidden fees, transparency in results, among many others.
Reducing your cost of living can be one of the most strategic money moves when you're on a fixed income. This might look like staying in your area but moving to a home with a lower cost to maintain, like trading in the big house with high utility bills or property taxes for a more affordable, lower-maintenance home.
Fixed-income investing is generally a conservative strategy where returns are generated from low-risk securities that pay predictable interest. Since the risk is lower, the interest coupon payments are also, usually, lower as well.
CDs are an excellent place to park your cash and earn interest on your balance. Although there's a risk of inflation outpacing CD interest rates, they are virtually guaranteed earnings. Bonds, on the other hand, may deliver higher returns and regular income via interest payments.
In general, prices rise as yields fall in fixed income. So, investing in higher-yielding fixed income today could capture yield with the potential for positive price performance should market yields continue to fall, tracking cash investment yields lower along with Fed rate cuts.
Wall Street analysts ultimately expect S&P 500 companies to grow earnings by roughly 11% in 2024. And by the fourth quarter, growth is expected to have roughly evened out, with the top 10 stocks expected to see growth of 17.2% while the other 490 companies see growth of 17.8%, according to FactSet data.
Holding bonds vs. trading bonds
However, you can also buy and sell bonds on the secondary market. After bonds are initially issued, their worth will fluctuate like a stock's would. If you're holding the bond to maturity, the fluctuations won't matter—your interest payments and face value won't change.
Investors' 10 year expected return stood at 7.2% in December 2023, slightly above the reading of 7.0% in October 2023. A second line shows the average stock market return that investors expect over the coming 12 months. The data are shown on an every-other-month basis from February 2017 through December 2023.
At its second gathering of 2024, held March 19 and 20, the Federal Reserve once again declined to adjust interest rates. It similarly held rates steady after its inaugural 2024 session in January. The federal funds target rate has remained at 5.25% to 5.5% since summer 2023, the highest it's been in over 20 years.
Inflation is a bond's worst enemy. Inflation erodes the purchasing power of a bond's future cash flows. Typically, bonds are fixed-rate investments. If inflation is increasing (or rising prices), the return on a bond is reduced in real terms, meaning adjusted for inflation.
Is it better to buy bonds when interest rates are higher or lower?
purchase bonds in a low-interest rate environment.
The longer the bond's maturity, the greater the risk that the bond's value could be impacted by changing interest rates prior to maturity, which may have a negative effect on the price of the bond.
Interest rate changes are the primary culprit when bond exchange-traded funds (ETFs) lose value. As interest rates rise, the prices of existing bonds fall, which impacts the value of the ETFs holding these assets.
Bond prices move in inverse fashion to interest rates, reflecting an important bond investing consideration known as interest rate risk. If bond yields decline, the value of bonds already on the market move higher. If bond yields rise, existing bonds lose value.
It's possible to redeem a savings bond as soon as one year after it's purchased, but it's usually wise to wait at least five years so you don't lose the last three months of interest when you cash it in.
Key Takeaways
Most bonds pay a fixed interest rate that becomes more attractive if interest rates fall, driving up demand and the price of the bond. Conversely, if interest rates rise, investors will no longer prefer the lower fixed interest rate paid by a bond, resulting in a decline in its price.
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